Research

Changing rates of change

Compared to most times in human history, the present is clearly a period of exceptionally fast technological change. Some commentators have claimed that we see faster technological development now than ever before and that the rate is increasing exponentially—some (e.g., Ray Kurzweil) even predicting a “technological singularity” later in this century. Others (e.g., Vaclav Smil) are sceptical of this claim. Questions about growth rates matter because they lead to widely different predictions about how much change we can expect to see within our lifetime and how it will relate to other ongoing trends.

Automation and complexity barriers

Automation—of physical processes through machines and of information processing through software—has had a transformative impact on the world economy, especially since the Industrial Revolution and the computer revolution. The extreme limiting case of this trend towards increasing automation would be the development of artificial general intelligence, a development which would undoubtedly have profound societal consequences. It is therefore important to study what factors determine the pace and ultimate limits of automation.

Machine intelligence capabilities and safety

Breakthroughs in the effort to achieve artificial general intelligence would be among the most consequential of any conceivable technological developments. The prospect of such breakthroughs (over long timescales) therefore needs to be critically assessed. Even if the probability is small, careful analysis is still called for since the potential impacts would be vast.

Novel applications and unexpected societal impacts: predictability horizons

The personal computer, the Internet, and the World Wide Web have had extensive impacts on the environment within which businesses, governments, and individuals operate. We might expect the arrival of important new computing applications that can currently be foreseen only in rough outline or not at all. Autonomous aerial vehicles have already entered active military duty, and the descendants of these first-generation military robotic systems are poised to revolutionize warfare. Mobile telephony is spreading like wildfire across the African continent bringing connectivity to subsistence farmers. Social networking sites and Twitter recently served to coordinate protest movements in Iran. Inexpensive and ubiquitous sensors will enable, according to some, an “Internet of things” in which all kinds of ordinary physical objects will be connected to the Internet and constantly in communication with one another, raising many issues related to privacy, vulnerability to hacking, opportunities for new types of scientific data gathering and collaborative information filtering.

Existential risks and future technologies

Work seeking to characterize the existential risks threatening humanity’s future has linked many of the largest risks to potential advances in fields such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, and “neurotechnologies” (e.g., Martin Rees, Seth Baum, Gaverick Matheny, Nick Bostrom). In this context, the focus is not on present-day capabilities or any advances that can be expected within the next few years, but rather on potential advances that might take place several decades from now.