"The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?" OMS working paper by Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael A. Osborne
THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne
September 18, 2013
"We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess
this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate
the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a
Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected
impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes,
with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and
the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation,
wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 45
percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence
that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship
with an occupation’s probability of computerisation."