Existential risks and future technologies

Work seeking to characterize the existential risks threatening humanity’s future has linked many of the largest risks to potential advances in fields such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, and “neurotechnologies” (e.g., Martin Rees, Seth Baum, Gaverick Matheny, Nick Bostrom). In this context, the focus is not on present-day capabilities or any advances that can be expected within the next few years, but rather on potential advances that might take place several decades from now.

It is also clear, however, that powerful technologies can also protect against some existential risks as well as provide other benefits. A proper evaluation of these issues requires consideration of a broad context: the effect of any one hypothetical technological capability might be risk-reducing or risk-increasing depending on which other capabilities it can be combined with and the socio-political context within which it occurs.

In order to address this challenge, the Programme will explore how future technologies—such as computing and nanotechnology, or computing and surveillance technologies—might interact, and what demands such future technology-combinations might place on national and international governance institutions and other actors shouldering risk-management responsibilities.